2022 NFL Regular Season Explosives
Why do explosive plays matter?
In the NFL an average scoring drive is around 6 plays, in fact in 2022 the average NFL drive was exactly 6 plays in length. When a typical drive starts at the -25 yard line and you have 6 plays to score you will need explosive plays (runs over 12 and passes over 16) to get you into the endzone.
NFL offenses averaged 86 passing explosives and 35 rushing explosives over the regular season. 70% of explosives are pass plays.
The above table shows all the regular season explosives, (the Bills and Bengals played one game less than every else so are at a slight disadvantage). The Eagles were +49 and led the NFL in explosive differential. The top teams on the list are the Superbowl teams and deep playoff contenders so you can see that good teams excel in this area. Let’s dive into Philadelphia a little more and see what explosive plays did for them.
In total the Eagles had 186 regular season drives. They scored touchdowns on 30.65% of those drives (this makes you the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL) and attempted FG on 13.4% of other drives. In total their odds of scoring on any given drive were around 45%. Conversely 79 drives contained an explosive pass - they scored touchdowns on 54.43% of these drives and attempted FGs on 15%. So a total scoring chance of just under 70%. In a league where every percentage point makes a difference this is a huge indicator for drive success. Even if you are forced to punt on that drive after an explosive play you are helping to change field position and that also is critical.
Conversely 79 drives contained an explosive pass - they scored touchdowns on 54.43% of these drives and attempted FGs on 15%. So a total scoring chance of just under 70%.
Every team who was +25 in explosive plays made the playoffs last year (Phi, Buff, KC, SF, Mia and Blt) and only 6 of 18 teams with a negative balance made the playoffs (Cin, Sea, Min, LAC, NYG and TB) with only 2 of those teams advancing from the first round (Cin defeated BLT and NYG defeated Min).
When you are working on your 2022 self scout take a look and see where your explosive plays came from and what the outcome of the drive with and without an explosive play looked like.
Next week we will get back into a team dive, keep on firing suggestions in the chat and I will get to those teams! Thanks for all the support! Rich
A meditation on football and whether current trends might kill or harm the sport.
https://billricejr.substack.com/p/i-hope-our-leaders-dont-screw-up
Have you done any study like this on time of possession?